The by-election for the Bankipur assembly seat in Patna concluded on Thursday, with the main contest between BJP's Neeraj Sinha and Jan Suraj's Prashant Kishor. An exit poll suggests a lead for the BJP, considering the caste equations and the low voter turnout of 34.16%. The BJP has previously won this seat three times with similar low voting percentages. However, Prashant Kishor has put up a strong fight, and his vote share is expected to increase, causing anxiety for both the BJP and Jan Suraj camps.

While Neeraj Sinha is the BJP's candidate, the prestige of national president Nitin Nabin, who has been elected MLA from this seat five times, is at stake. Several factors are cited for the BJP's potential victory. In the 2025 assembly elections, Nitin Nabin won by a margin of over 51,000 votes, though this margin might decrease this time. Out of 3.79 lakh total voters in Bankipur, approximately 1.29 lakh votes were cast.

Traditional BJP vote banks like Kayastha (around 15%), Bhumihar, Brahmin, Rajput (20-22%), and Vaishya (around 12%) remain strong. The Kayastha and Baniya vote banks appear united with the BJP, while some Bhumihar and Brahmin votes might go to Prashant Kishor. The Kushwaha vote is expected to favor the BJP due to Samrat Chaudhary being the Chief Minister, and videos of Nitish Kumar and Nishant Kumar have influenced the Kurmi vote.

In a low-turnout election, the BJP, being a cadre-based party, is expected to benefit from its active workers in booth management. Nitin Nabin's development work during his tenure as MLA from 2006 to 2025, including road construction over Mandiri Nala, urban health centers, and a double-decker flyover, has also impacted voters. Additionally, the proactive role of Patna police before and during the election has unexpectedly aided the BJP.